OVERVIEW
The number of cases of polio that have occurred so far in 2015 is at its lowest point in history.
Since the last report of the Independent Monitoring Board (IMB), Nigeria has been removed from the list of polio endemic countries. Only two now remain: Pakistan and Afghanistan. No Wild Polio Virus (WPV) Type 3 has been reported anywhere in the world since November 2012, no WPV2 has arisen since 1999, and no WPV1 has been found in Africa since August 2014 in Somalia. These are major achievements.
The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has implemented changes to its structure and functioning following the management and governance review that reported in 2014. Decision-making, partnership working, overall leadership, financial transparency, and the cohesiveness of the programme have steadily improved since then but the level of coordination across partners necessary to assure high within-country performance remains problematic.
The Polio Oversight Board (POB), at its meeting at the end of September 2015, after reviewing four end-oftransmission scenarios, concluded that the most likely outcome of the eradication programme is that polio transmission will be interrupted in 2016, and eradication officially certified by 2019. This was given the status of a formal voting decision by the Board. This scenario has been costed by the Board’s Finance and Accountability Committee and requires $1.5 billion of funding on top of the budget already earmarked for eradication.
Should polio transmission not be interrupted by 2016, a further at least $800 million per year would be needed to deal with the consequences. This figure could easily be $1 billion per year.
